As I’m sure you’ll know from my FB and Twitter feeds (if you read them), as well as a previous blog post, I’m going all out for a vote for the UK to remain in the EU. At this point, with less than 3 weeks to go to the referendum, the leave camp are capitalising on the immigration question, using largely inaccurate and misleading data, but getting a lot of publicity in the process. The vote will undoubtedly be close, and I still believe remain will win the argument. But suppose we don’t, and we wake up on 24 June to a Brexit result?
I’ve been discussing with family and a close colleague what we will do if this happens. There will be the amusing spectacle of the Tories tearing themselves apart, but that will be something of a pyrrhic victory. But what of the other consequences?
First, David Cameron may either just resign, or a leadership election may be forced, which might result in Boris Johnson becoming PM. Second, the Brexit result could lead to the SNP demanding another Scottish Independence Referendum, and winning it, thus breaking up the UK. These are terrible consequences, but they could happen.
By facing these worst case scenarios now, I am trying to prepare myself for the worst possible outcome. By doing so, this is my coping strategy for the future. This might avoid what happened after the last General Election, where I was totally unprepared for the result, and the seismic shock waves it produced.
Of course, if the worst happens, those of us who are unhappy with the result will have to regroup. It might just force a realignment of some political parties (not just the Tories), but this is a high price to pay for such a change.
Having said all that, I’m still trying to stay positive!